There have already been a lot of changes in the solar market supply chain in 2026. The Australian solar industry is expected to see even further demand increases and solar panel prices rising throughout the year. Factors such as China’s decision to remove export rebates, higher silver prices, and the shift to newer panel technologies are reshaping the market of PV products.
On 1st April 2026, the Chinese government’s value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for PV products is coming to an end and there is no sign it will be extended. Currently, when Chinese producers export goods, they can get back some or all of the VAT they paid domestically on those products (about 9% of PV products). China has historically used these tax rebates to subsidise exports. This rebate is not continuing past April, meaning exporters can no longer claim the taxes back.
The vast majority of solar panels in Australia are manufactured in China, so in April, we can expect a further 9-10% increase in solar products. Battery products will also have their export rebates reduced from 9% to 6% in April, and then eventually end by January 1st, 2027.
There has been a great demand for solar panels, certainly in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, which has led to increases in demand for the raw materials used to make them. This means that some of these material are growing more expensive. The soaring price of silver, polysilicon, aluminium and glass are having a big impact on PV panel prices.
The recent silver price surge is especially impacting the selling price of PV modules. Towards the end of January 2026, the price of silver increased by over 8% in one day. In the last 12 months, silver prices have increased by 35%. These increases carry over to the price of the finished product. Silver pricing will flow through to product pricing and eventually to the consumer at some point.
Solar manufacturers have been able to sell their products at near-break-even prices. However, the compounding of the VAT finalisation and higher material costs has made maintaining these prices unsustainable. Solar installers are already seeing small increases in their pricing, and it’s expected to continue rising throughout the year.
There are several other factors that also contribute to PV module price changes. These factors may have a small impact on their own, but when combined, there is a compounding effect that can lead to noticeable increases.
The good news is that panels account for only 20-30% of the cost of a solar installation. Other factors include labour, inverters, racking and batteries. So, even if solar panel prices increased by 30%, homeowners would only see around a 2-5% increase in the price of their project.
Despite these small bumps in system costs, installing solar has never been more affordable. Australian consumers have access to stable federal and state solar incentives & rebates, making solar one of the best long-term investments available.
